I love the first day of the month. There are two things I do on the morning of every first day. First, I say “Rabbit, Rabbit.” That’s a tradition that I learned sometime back in the eighties: if, on the first day of the month, the first words out of your mouth are “Rabbit, Rabbit,” you will have good luck all month. Second, there’s this month-ahead horoscope I like to read.

Together, these two little habits make me look forward to the first day of the month for a number of days leading up to it. I know they are superstitions, and I don’t really believe in either “luck” or the stars guiding (or determining) my fate. But I still read the horoscope and say the words. It’s fun.

So, today, I am thinking about irrationality.

In many of the difficult problems of public life, there is an important form of irrationality: the belief that major trade offs can be avoided. Most major public debates going on now hinge on this. For instance, here are two trade offs that are currently being avoided:

• There will not be universal health care without some form of explicit rationing of care.
• There will not be meaningful reduction in greenhouse emissions without drastic changes in how business (manufacturing and goods transport) gets done.

For people who are in favor of the policies, these trade offs need to be addressed and embraced. Otherwise one is engaging in magical thinking — that we can have some change without paying for it.

What other trade offs are we trying to duck in public life?